Pyrolysis as a new alternative
Ireland stands at a critical juncture in its climate journey. Despite the ambition enshrined in its legally binding target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 51% by 2030 (relative to 2018 levels), the latest analysis from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reveals a worrying regression. As of 2025, the projected emissions reduction stands at just 23%—a marked decline from the 29% forecast in 2024 and a stark indication that current climate policies, even if fully implemented, fall short of what is required.
This underperformance is not limited to a single sector but reflects systemic shortfalls across the economy. Sluggish progress in renewable energy deployment, electric vehicle uptake, district heating, and biomethane integration has contributed to rising carbon budget overshoots. Sectoral ceilings for emissions are expected to be breached in electricity, transport, buildings, and industry, while land use and forestry emissions are projected to rise, exacerbating the challenge. These trends not only jeopardise Ireland’s compliance with EU and national climate targets but also pose escalating financial risks through potential penalties and carbon credit purchases.
In this context, it is imperative to explore cross-sectoral mitigation technologies that can both complement and accelerate Ireland’s decarbonisation efforts. Among these, pyrolysis—a thermochemical process that converts organic and plastic waste into valuable by-products such as biochar, syngas, and bio-oil—offers a particularly compelling proposition. Pyrolysis can contribute meaningfully to emission reductions in underperforming sectors such as waste management, agriculture, industry, and land use, while also offering pathways for negative emissions and resource circularity.
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Renewable Energy
EPA Warns of Reversal in Ireland’s Climate Progress
Ireland is falling further behind in meeting its legally binding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets, according to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). In its latest projections, the EPA forecasts a 23% reduction in emissions by 2030, assuming full implementation of current climate policies. This is a downgrade from the 29% reduction predicted in 2024, and well below the 51% reduction target enshrined in national legislation.
The EPA attributes this setback to sluggish progress across several critical sectors, including renewable energy deployment, electric vehicle adoption, district heating, and biomethane use. EPA Director General Laura Burke emphasised that the shift must now move from aspirational policy to tangible implementation.
The updated projections were based on recent submissions from government departments and agencies, revealing that Ireland will exceed its 2021–2025 carbon budget by 12 million tonnes and is on track to exceed the 2026–2030 budget by 114 million tonnes. These overruns pose serious financial risks, potentially requiring the purchase of billions of euros in carbon credits.
Crucially, the report notes that almost all sectors—including electricity, transport, industry, and buildings—are set to breach their sectoral emissions ceilings. Although agricultural emissions could fall by up to 16%, the sector’s ceiling is under review due to evolving scientific understanding of its emissions.
The EPA also warns that Ireland is likely to miss its EU climate target of a 42% reduction from 2005 levels by 2030, even under the most optimistic policy scenario.
A particularly alarming finding is the decline in expected capacity for renewable electricity generation. Projections for onshore wind have been reduced from 9 GW to 7.1 GW, while offshore wind expectations have halved from 5 GW to 2.7 GW. Similarly, targets for solar energy, biomethane, and district heating have been significantly downgraded.
Electric vehicle (EV) uptake remains a major challenge. The EPA now projects only 640,000 EVs on Irish roads by 2030—down from last year’s estimate of 945,000, and far above the 148,000 currently in circulation. Achieving the new projection will require adding half a million EVs in just five years.
The EPA also excluded 5.25 million tonnes of "unallocated savings" listed in the Government’s Climate Action Plan due to a lack of clarity on their implementation.
Finally, the report warns that net emissions from land use and forestry could double by 2030. This is due to the ageing of Ireland’s current forestry stock, which is nearing harvesting age, coupled with inadequate new planting.
Where Pyrolysis Can Make an Impact SectorChallenge Identified by EPA How Pyrolysis Can Contribute Other (WasteOnly a 25% reduction compared to the 50% targetRedirects plastic and organic waste away from landfills and incineration, producing usable fuel in the process. Agriculture Projected 16% reduction against a 25% target Transforms agricultural residues into biochar, enhancing carbon sequestration and soil health. Industry Expected 12% reduction versus a 35% target Delivers low-carbon industrial heat through syngas and-oil, aiding in the revival of district heating. LULUCF Emissions have risen by 39% Generates biochar for carbon storage and mitigates emissions linked to land-use changes. National Carbon Budget Forecasted overshoot of MtCO₂eq Provides a negative emissions and offsets through scalable, localized pyrolysis facilities. Policy Gap (Unallocated Savings) 5.25 MtCO₂eq omitted due to insufficient planning Can implementation gaps with readily available technology.